The SpaceX Dragon commercial space cargo spacecraft approach and docking with the International Space Station in 2012 was cited by PoliSpace's Jim Muncy as the top "tipping point" event for NewSpace in 2012 during questioning on "THE SPACE SHOW" WITH DR. DAVID LIVINGSTON.
SpaceX and Orbital Sciences Corporation anticipate 2012 launch dates to deliver the first commercial cargo missions launched from Cape Canaveral, Florida and Wallops Island, Virginia, respectively.
Muncy, a Co-Founder of the SPACE FRONTIER FOUNDATION and who assists space entrepreneurs, cited as the second tipping point for NewSpace in 2012 as powered flight and landing of suborbital spacecraft vehicles. He specifically noted Armadillo Aerospace, Virgin Galactic's SpaceShipTwo and/or XCOR for possible powered test flights lights to space this year.
The third and final tipping point cited by Muncy for NewSpace in 2012 was the possibility of NASA to ink an executable contract for CRYOGENIC TRANSFER AND STORAGE on orbit. He noted that such an event would dramatically change the economic calculations by the commercial space launch sector firms. Noting whether it was 500 to 50,000 lbs. of fuel, Muncy said a contract to deliver fuel on-orbit would change the commercial space business outlook.
Source: aquarius-project.blogspot.com